US PMI Data Drops Today. Here's What Traders Expect

S&P Global will release on Wednesday its preliminary September Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum. The data is expected to highlight US economic resilience. 

The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), each calibrated such that numbers above 50 indicate growth and readings below that threshold indicate contraction. 

These monthly snapshots, released far ahead of many official figures, analyse everything from production and export patterns to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels, offering some of the earliest signs of the economy’s direction. 

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report? 

Investors anticipate some easing in September’s flash Manufacturing PMI from 53.9 to 53.5, while the Services PMI is projected to ease from 56.5 to 56. 

Although a minor decline may not scare markets, US business activity remains well in expansion territory, lending further support to the ongoing view of the US ‘exceptionalism’. 

A significant upside surprise in both prints would likely bolster the US Dollar by confirming the idea of a healthy economy, hence reinforcing the Fed’s cautious (hawkish?) stance. 

When will the September flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD? 

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT on Wednesday. 

Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, warns that further losses in EUR/USD should not be ruled out in the current context, particularly following the break below the critical 200-day SMA above 1.1620. 

If bulls manage to somehow regain the upper hand, the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542, respectively, are expected to offer initial resistance prior to the more relevant 200-day SMA. Once the pair clears the latter, the next target emerges at the August top at 1.1711 (August 21). 

Alternatively, Piovano notes that the continuation of the selling pressure should meet initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1353 (July 28), prior to the 2026 bottom at 1.1324 (June 24). 

“Momentum indicators also favour extra declines as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 29 is indicative of a forceful trend,” Piovano adds.