Ethereum (ETH) enters September trading at $2,452 after printing its first higher high of this cycle. The $2,438 Fibonacci level now decides whether the August breakout survives.
The weekly chart shows ETH breaking the descending trendline that capped every rally since the August 2025 peak at $4,958. That line had held for almost a year.
Two weeks ago, Ethereum printed a weekly candle worth more than 31%. The move produced the first higher high of this cycle, a shift that earlier breakout attempts failed to deliver.
Price is now testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85 as support. A weekly close above it opens the 0.5 retracement at $2,919.89 as the next objective, roughly 19% higher.
The June low also carries weight. It landed inside a demand zone between $1,600 and $1,760 that previously absorbed selling in June 2023, October 2023, and April 2025.
Not every reading is constructive. Analyst Ted Pillows notes that ETH tried to clear $2,550 and failed again. That ceiling sits on the 50-week moving average at $2,542.
$ETH tried to break above the $2,550 level but failed again.For now, I think most of Ethereum's moves are done in the short term.Expecting more chop and a small capitulation before reversal. pic.twitter.com/Q1pD2dS8xR
— Ted (@TedPillows) August 31, 2026
Pillows therefore expects more sideways movement and a small capitulation before a genuine reversal. He marks $2,200 as the first support and $2,800 as the next resistance zone.
Leveraged positioning complicates that view. A whale recently opened a 10x long position in Ethereum worth $102.3 million, with a liquidation price of $2,241. Meanwhile, several trading firms still hold sizeable short exposure.
HOLY SH*T ! This whale just opened a 10x $102,348,280 $ETH LONG. Liquidation: $2,241.Does he know something, we don't? pic.twitter.com/rn1rcUqF1p
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) August 30, 2026
The daily chart dates the breakout precisely. Volume spiked from Aug. 19 through Aug. 21, and the Aug. 21 session cleared the April 17 swing high near $2,400.
That region should now act as short-term support because it overlaps with the 0.618 retracement. The Supertrend indicator flipped bullish on July 12 and is currently near $2,220.
Daily volume has faded since the breakout, however, which argues for the consolidation Pillows describes. Institutional demand has offset some of that cooling.
Losing $2,438 would expose the Supertrend near $2,220. Below that sits the psychological $2,000 level, which ETH broke down from on June 2.
Holding $2,438 instead keeps $2,920 in play and strengthens the broader altcoin case.
September therefore reduces to one question. Bulls need a weekly close above $2,438, while bears need $2,550 to keep rejecting.