WTI Price Forecast: Flattens above $102 but looks on track to revisit three-year high
- The Oil price turns flat near $102.25 after the rally hits a pause.
- Washington refuses Iran’s proposal and vows to extend its naval blockade on Iran.
- Major central banks have delivered hawkish remarks on their interest rate outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades calmly around $102.25 during the European trading session on Friday. The Oil price has turned flat after an almost two-week-long rally hit a pause near $107.35 on Thursday.
On a broader note, the oil price is upbeat due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
The Hormuz is expected to remain closed further, as the latest remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump show that Washington has refused Iran’s proposal and has stressed continuing its naval blockade on Iranian sea ports.
Meanwhile, hawkish commentaries from global central banks regarding the monetary policy outlook have raised concerns over the oil demand projections. Global central banks have stressed the need to tighten their monetary conditions in the near term, warning upside inflation risks amid elevated oil prices.
WTI technical analysis
WTI US Oil trades sideways at around $102.25 at the press time. The near-term bias of the oil price remains bullish as it stays well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $95.15.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.95 remains in positive territory but short of overbought conditions, suggesting ongoing buying pressure with room for further gains before sentiment becomes stretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near $95.15, where a pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest while the broader uptrend remains intact. A daily close back below this moving average would hint at a loss of immediate bullish momentum and expose deeper correction risks toward $90.00.
Looking up, the Oil price could extend the rally towards the multi-year high of $113.28, if it breaks above the April 30 high at $107.35.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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