Australian Dollar flat as Oil spike, Fed hawkish bets keep traders cautious

• AUD/USD trades flat as Oil spike lifts Treasury yields.
• Warsh’s hawkish tone keeps Fed tightening risks in focus.
• Australia PMIs, permits and GDP data drive next catalysts.

The Aussie Dollar traded sideways on Monday, unchanged at 0.7165, as a jump in energy prices sparked by the Middle East conflict pushed US Treasury yields higher, but not the Greenback. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD failed to gain traction, ending the session flat as market participants await a busy US economic calendar this week.

Aussie steadies as Middle East tensions lift yields before key US data

As mentioned, oil prices rose after the US and Iran exchanged strikes, indicating that a swift resolution is unlikely in the short term. At the same time, US President Trump promised to retaliate, saying that Iran's strikes would be limited, confirming rumours from a story revealed earlier by Axios.

Last week, hawkish comments by the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, weighed on the Aussie Dollar, proposing the Greenback’s recovery. Nevertheless, Monday’s economic docket was absent, with just the release of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, which exceeded estimates in August.

In Australia, the economic docket will feature the release of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, with the previous reading being 52.0. If the numbers exceed the latter, this would indicate that the economy is growing in a sustained trend.

Besides this, the schedule will feature Building Permits for July, ahead of the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on September 2.

Australia’s Trimmed mean CPI revealed on August 26 was 3.6% YoY, an indication that persistent core readings could increase the chances for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The RBA’s last meeting  minutes showed the board kept a hawkish backstop: members debated a 25bp move vs holding, and several judged upside inflation risks could crystallise.

AUD/USD Price Forecast 

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7166, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the latest simple moving average triple value around 0.7016 and a series of rising trend-line supports drawn from the 0.6673–0.6897 region. Momentum is constructive, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index hovering in the low-60s, which reinforces buying pressure but stops short of overbought territory.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, ahead of the longer-term descending trend line originating around 0.8015. On the downside, a first layer of support is provided by the rising trend structure starting near 0.6897, which converges with the supportive simple moving averages around 0.7016; a deeper pullback would expose additional trend-line floors at roughly 0.6865, 0.6833 and 0.6673.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)