EUR/USD: Soft tone but 1.14 base holds – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD has slipped slightly below yesterday’s low as Dollar strength persists. ECB data show moderating inflation expectations, while President Lagarde signaled caution on rate moves given energy-price risks. Technically, they see a soft undertone but maintain a mild upward bias from the mid-month 1.14 test, with support at 1.1500 and resistance near 1.1560.

Lagarde caution as key supports watched

"The EUR has found no respite from USD strength so far on the day, slipping marginally below yesterday’s low."

"ECB data revealed a moderation in Euro area inflation expectations in February—before Gulf hostilities commenced—but policymakers remain alert to the risks from rising energy prices."

"President Lagarde said the scale of the shock is probably beyond imagination at this point, suggesting that the central bank will not act precipitously on rates before it can fully assess developments."

"Spot retains a soft undertone but the mild upward bias established from the mid-month test of the 1.14 area remains intact."

"Support is 1.1500/05 intraday. Weakness below this channel base will target a retest (at least) of the 1.14 area. Resistance is 1.1560. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)