GBP/JPY stuck in a tight range as traders weigh UK CPI and BoJ minutes
- GBP/JPY remains range-bound as geopolitical tensions keep markets cautious.
- UK inflation data support GBP as core CPI ticks higher.
- BoJ meeting minutes lean toward further monetary policy tightening.
GBP/JPY trades within a tight range on Wednesday, with choppy price action as ongoing developments in the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across the FX space, while traders show limited reaction to recent economic data.
At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 213.00, remaining on the front foot for a fourth straight day.
The British Pound (GBP) draws modest support from the latest UK inflation data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in February, in line with expectations, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in January.
On an annual basis, CPI held steady at 3.0%, matching forecasts. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged higher to 3.2% YoY from 3.1%.
Inflation remains sticky and well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, keeping the central bank in a difficult position as it balances price stability against growing risks to economic growth.
The data, however, predates the recent surge in global energy prices, which has prompted traders to reassess the policy outlook, with markets now leaning toward potential rate hikes instead of earlier expectations for rate cuts.
According to a BHH report, the UK swaps curve now implies around 60 basis points (bps) of rate hikes over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) firmed during the Asian session after the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes, but later pared its gains as the UK inflation data lent support to the GBP.
The BoJ meeting minutes showed that policymakers remain open to further rate hikes, with several members highlighting the need to continue adjusting policy if inflation evolves in line with projections. The minutes also pointed to persistent price pressure driven by a weaker Yen and rising import costs, while emphasizing a cautious and data-dependent approach to future tightening.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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