Is This the End of Cardano?

When the founder of a blockchain publicly suggests the second half of the year will be "very hard" for his own creation, holders tend to notice, and then they often dump their coins.

During a June 2 livestream, Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson did exactly that. He reacted to the shutdowns of a pair of projects on the network by admitting he has no power over many of the most important financial and technological levers that could start a turnaround strategy for the chain.

Then, the next day, he claimed on social media that he was "taking a break." This announcement sent Cardano down by another 10%; it's down by 89% over the last five years as of this writing on June 8.

There's a real bear case for selling this coin, but it's distinct from what the founder's lament implies. Let's dive in.

Image source: Getty Images.

What Hoskinson's powerlessness means

First, appreciate that Hoskinson's admission of having very limited operational control over Cardano and its road map is accurate. After the governance transition implemented with the blockchain's Voltaire update, activities like treasury spending, protocol upgrades, and ecosystem funding are all determined by on-chain votes rather than by the founder or the core team.

But, putting aside these truths, Hoskinson was really commenting on how the projects in the chain's ecosystem are practically guaranteed to experience more near-term price pressure to the downside, which, given the survival odds of small projects in a bad market, means many won't make it. And there isn't anything he can do about that.

Overall, Hoskinson's comment is a pretty weak concern for someone trying to decide whether Cardano belongs in their long-term crypto portfolio allocation. A founder conceding he can't single-handedly win a fight against the market doesn't change the long-term thesis.

The actual problem is that the thesis for buying Cardano has been absent for years, and his statement just gave more people a reason to look for it and realize it's missing.

There does not appear to be a reason to buy this coin

The core issue here is that Cardano's tokenomics don't reward its holders. Activity on the chain does not lead to the token being more valuable; higher network usage just recycles the existing supply back into circulation when users pay transaction fees.

Activity to fuel that recycling is also thin. Cardano's decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) is about $96 million, per DefiLlama, with roughly $48 million in stablecoins. Rivals like Ethereum hold tens of billions in DeFi value, and even mid-tier chains run multiples ahead. Without deeper stablecoin liquidity or a niche where it excels against the competition, Cardano is just competing for general smart contract activity against larger, faster, cheaper, and better-capitalized rivals, and that strategy has never really worked.

Therefore, it doesn't make sense to buy this struggling coin today. If you hold it, you should strongly consider selling.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.