Oklo Stock Is Down 42% Over the Last 6 Months -- Will This New Fuel Program Reverse the Losses?

Over the last six months, pressure has mounted on Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), with shares dropping 44% as of this writing. The company keeps burning cash, and with no meaningful revenue, there hasn't been much to be excited about.

What's needed for shares to rally is more positive updates, which can reignite investor confidence. We just saw an example of that on May 26, as Oklo says it's in advanced negotiations to be a part of a new government program.

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Used fuel equals opportunity

In addition to setting up reactors, Oklo's business plans also include fuel recycling. "The more than 94,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel stored at power plant sites around the country contain considerable reserves of recyclable fuel. The energy that can be unlocked from this material via recycling is equivalent to about 1.3 trillion barrels of oil, or five times the reserves of Saudi Arabia," Oklo said in a press release.

Its solution to that issue will be the construction of a $1.6 billion nuclear fuel recycling facility in Tennessee. Initial construction is expected to begin in 2027, with commissioning starting by the early 2030s.

Getting reactors up and running sooner

On May 26, Oklo announced that it had been selected, along with four other companies, by the U.S. Department of Energy for advanced negotiations under the government's Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program.

Under the program, the plutonium would be turned into fuel for advanced reactors. If selected, Oklo will work with the European nuclear reactor developer, newcleo. Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said in the announcement that the material could serve as "bridge fuel," helping to "bring more reactors online sooner."

On the day of the announcement, the news was well received, and the Oklo stock price opened 9% above its previous close. The excitement quickly fizzled out, however, and the stock price has dropped noticeably since that quick rally.

It's still an early-stage investment

Broadly, there's plenty of promise and upside with Oklo, as evidenced by its partnership with Meta Platforms and its potential involvement in more U.S. government initiatives. But Oklo is still in the early stages of becoming operational, which is what makes the stock so volatile. Just looking at its projected timeline for its fuel recycling facility, construction alone isn't expected to start until 2027, and it's still in advanced talks for that plutonium program with no official deal locked down. If the company is selected to participate in the program, it may help create a short-term price spike in the stock, as it did on May 26, but it's unlikely to lead to a sustained rally to reverse the recent losses.

The bigger issue is that the company does not generate revenue, and for its 2026 first-quarter results, its net loss increased from $9.8 million in the prior year to over $33 million. For shares to find their footing, investors will need to see more signs that Oklo's potential is translating into actual revenue. The upside is there if Oklo executes on its ambitions, but the risk is also sky-high as it continues to prove itself.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.