SpaceX Prices Tomorrow at $135 for the Largest IPO in History — What the S-1 Financials Actually Say

TradingKey - SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) sets its IPO price for tomorrow, June 11, at $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, a deal set to be the largest-ever IPO, surpassing the 2019 listing of Saudi Aramco. Trading on the opening day will happen tomorrow on June 12. The IPO is about twice oversubscribed with in excess of $10 billion in institutional orders verified. MSCI announced on June 9 that it will apply its usual treatment for the early inclusion in its Global Standard Indexes of large-sized IPOs, implying structural buy orders from passive investors after the listing of the stock. The 2026 S-1/A is now available as of June 1. Here is what is in the S-1, a company that is a profitable satellite internet operation, a heavy capex rocket-launching company, and an AI company that has a capex higher than its other two business lines.

The Three-Segment Structure — What You Are Actually Buying at $135

The S-1 has SpaceX organized into three segments: (1) Connectivity (Starlink), (2) Space (Falcon 9 launches, Starship development, Starshield defence), and (3) AI (xAI, Grok, X, formerly known as Twitter, data centres). They are three very differently profiled business lines, and the consolidated numbers only make sense if analyzed by the segment-level.

Connectivity is the main anchor business. Starlink brought in $11.387 billion in 2025 revenue and has $4.423 billion in operating profit and $7.168 billion in its segment adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a 63% EBITDA margin. Its subscriber count is 4.5 million at the beginning of 2025, and then it jumped to over 9 million by the end of the year, and by early 2026, the company said it had 10.3 million subscribers spread over 164 countries. The company offers tiered pricing: a consumer tier that charges $120 per month for broadband, an enterprise and maritime tier that charges $5,000-plus per month, and a government/defense tier that charges undisclosed but far higher rates. Starlink’s growth rate has been to double its subscribership over a one-year period and it has done it much quicker than Dire- TV did during its high-growth years. This is the segment of the company that, as an independent unit, anchors the equity’s valuation at just about any reasonable multiple.

The SpaceX business mainly makes revenue from Falcon 9 launches for commercial customers at approximately $67 million to $97 million per flight, with some 130 launches done in 2025, representing more than a 60 percent share of the global commercial launch market. It is a profitable segment, but it is heading towards the natural limits of growth as Starship is built to supersede it in the future on an as low or lower per kilogram basis. SpaceX says it has spent in excess of $15 billion on the development of Starship and Super Heavy through 2025, but the program is well along, with the development of commercial operations and several successful flight tests of both the booster and spacecraft during the 2025 and 2026 period.

The AI segment is where things get complicated. Revenue for this segment was $3.201 billion in 2025, primarily from Grok, the AI service by xAI for enterprise customers, and the monetization of X data, as well as data centre contracts with a few other AI players that were only in the beginning stages of development. But the segment lost $6.355 billion at the operating level in 2025. Capex was approximately $12.7 billion on xAI for 2025, higher than Starlink or the space segment. For Q1 2026, the segment capex totaled $7.723 billion, a huge 76 percent of all capex done by the group. And the xAI unit was purchased in an all stock buyout in February 2026 for a $250 billion value, after a $20 billion equity funding round from, among others, Nvidia and the sovereign wealth fund from Qatar at that valuation in January 2026. The total losses now sit at $41.3 billion.

The $1.75 Trillion Valuation — What It Requires You to Believe

At $135 per share for a market cap of $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is at approximately 94 times the 2025 revenue total of $18.674 billion, and 266 times the 2025 adjusted EBITDA total of $6.584 billion. These aren’t any kind of conventional multiples, but are pricing in the long-duration optionality for Starship, the development of an orbital data centre business, the AI goals of xAI, and the growth rate and subscriber trajectory of Starlink. SpaceX has historically pointed to gross margins of roughly 70% on an over time basis versus 49% in 2025, and places the addressable AI market size at $26.5 trillion. For the bulls to be right, they have to think a good part of that opportunity is addressable to the combined SpaceX-xAI. The fair value estimates from Morningstar and other doubting Thomases put the stock in the $600 billion to $800 billion range. They note execution risks on commercial Starship operations, the untested approach to an orbital data centre business, where xAI stands in competition to OpenAI, Google and Microsoft, and the capital needs for simultaneously operating three large high capex businesses. The thrust of that point is not that SpaceX is not good business, just that at a fair SaaS multiple even Starlink alone could get you to a $400 billion to $600 billion valuation. What their point is, is that the $1.75 trillion number is pricing in most of the long term optionality on day one, leaving little buffer should any of the three segments disappoint.

MSCI inclusion, index mechanics and the post-IPO demand structure. The MSCI announcement on June 9 is the most relevant market structure development of the past 48 hours. MSCI indicated that it will use its standard early inclusion process for large IPOs to the SPCX after the June 12 opening price. At $1.75 trillion in market capitalisation, SpaceX would automatically be one of the largest of the ten largest components of the MSCI World Index and MSCI ACWI, which would force passive funds that track the index to purchase SPCX stock to remain in the weightings. The S&P Dow Jones indices chose not to change its rules for the inclusion process of fast-track index S&P 500, so the SPCX will not get included in the S&P 500 on day one. So MSCI inclusion, while not S&P 500, creates a structural and persistent buyer that is not necessarily price sensitive, meaning, index funds are going to have to buy them regardless of what they are worth to them. It is a meaningful mechanical support post-IPO for the stock, especially in the first 30 to 90 days after when the share float is still absorbing shares in the market.

The dual class share arrangement is another consideration for institutional investors as we wait to see how things play out. Musk’s voting control post-IPO means that all strategic decisions, everything from the orbital data centre rollout, Starship ramp timing and xAI integration and more, will remain under his influence regardless of the will of public shareholders. And, the vesting schedule of Musk’s pay plan which is tied to market capitalisation milestones and what he terms human colony milestones (which is Mars), is the weirdest executive pay plan for any large cap IPO. And when investors get into SPCX at $135 per share, they are buying into both a good business and the multi decade vision of its founder.

MSCI Inclusion, Index Mechanics, and the Post-IPO Demand Structure

The MSCI announcement on June 9 is the most market-structure-relevant development of the past 48 hours. MSCI confirmed it will apply its standard early-inclusion methodology for large IPOs to SPCX following the June 12 debut. At $1.75 trillion market cap, SpaceX would immediately rank among the ten largest components of the MSCI World Index and MSCI ACWI, requiring all passive funds tracking those indices to purchase SPCX shares to maintain their tracking weight. S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to amend its rules for fast-track S&P 500 inclusion, meaning SPCX will not join the S&P 500 immediately. The MSCI inclusion creates a structural and persistent buyer that is price-insensitive — index funds must buy regardless of their view on valuation. That mechanical buying support is a meaningful post-IPO price stabiliser, particularly in the first 30 to 90 days when new shares are still being absorbed by the market.

The dual-class share structure is the governance consideration that institutional investors are monitoring closely. Elon Musk’s voting control post-IPO ensures that strategic decisions — including the orbital data centre programme, Starship development timeline, and xAI integration — remain under his direction regardless of public shareholder opinion. The vesting schedule tied to market cap milestones and “human colony milestones” (a reference to Mars colonisation) embedded in Musk’s compensation plan is the most unconventional executive compensation structure in any large-cap IPO in history. Investors are implicitly endorsing both the business and the founder’s multi-decade vision when they buy at $135.

Key Financial Metrics and What to Watch Post-Listing

IPO KEY FACTS

• IPO Price:  $135 per share — fixed-price offering
• Shares offered:  555.6 million shares
• Total raise:  ~$75 billion
• Valuation:  $1.75 trillion implied market cap
• Pricing:  June 11, 2026 after market close
• First trading:  June 12, 2026 on Nasdaq (SPCX)
• Oversubscription:  ~2x, $10B+ institutional orders
• MSCI inclusion:  Confirmed for MSCI Global Standard Indexes
• S&P 500:  Not fast-tracked — standard eligibility process
• 2025 revenue:  $18.674 billion
• 2025 net loss:  $4.937 billion
• 2025 adj. EBITDA:  $6.584 billion
• Starlink 2025:  $11.387B revenue, $4.423B operating profit
• xAI 2025:  $3.201B revenue, $6.355B operating loss

What SpaceX’s S-1 tells us about SpaceX’s financials

2025 consolidated revenue $18.674 billion. 2025 consolidated net loss $4.937 billion. 2025 adjusted EBITDA $6.584 billion. Starlink (Connectivity segment) 2025 revenue $11.387 billion; 2025 operating profit $4.423 billion, the only profitable segment.

The Space segment (commercial Falcon 9 launch services) remains in profit. AI segment (xAI) 2025 revenue $3.201 billion; 2025 operating loss $6.355 billion largely due to $12.7 billion xAI capex. Group cumulative losses $41.3 billion.

Why SpaceX SPCX inclusion in the MSCI Index matters post-IPO for valuation

On June 9, MSCI stated that it will apply MSCI’s early large-IPO inclusion methodology to SPCX beginning on the first business day following the scheduled SPCX listing date of June 12 (T+0). With an estimated valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SPCX would be among the ten largest constituent securities in the MSCI World and the MSCI ACWI (All Country World) indices. Both of these indexes are among the most closely followed global index families.

All passive funds that track these two index families would have to buy and hold SPCX shares in their indexes post-listing in order to maintain their respective index-tracking weights. This would create post-IPO demand that is mechanically generated and price-insensitive from index funds. S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected SpaceX fast track S&P 500 inclusion

What are the main investment risks of buying SpaceX at its $1.75 trillion IPO valuation?

The primary risks are:

1. The $1.75 trillion pricing of SpaceX prices in most long-term optionality at IPO day one (Morningstar fair values estimates range from $600 to $800 billion based on Starlink alone)
2. AI capex at 76% of group capex in Q1 2026, xAI is burning $6 billion-plus annually in operating losses
3. Musk has unconditional strategic control of SpaceX through a dual-class share structure
4. Commercial Starship operations are unproven at scale
5. Orbital data centre strategy is highly speculative

MSCI inclusion provides an additional tailwind and structural support in the first 30 to 90 trading days post-IPO, but does not resolve the broader question of valuation at $1.75 trillion

Bottom Line

SpaceX prices tomorrow at $135 per share for the largest IPO in the history of capital markets. The S-1 makes clear that we have three business segments: Starlink is a world-class profitable satellite internet company that is growing at an exceptional rate. Space is a profitable, if mature launch services business, that is currently funding the Starship bet. AI is an xAI gamble with high conviction, high capex, high risk that is currently the dominant source of the SpaceX group’s net losses.

Valuing SpaceX at $1.75 trillion requires you to believe in the long-term full stack (commercial Starship operations, orbital data centers and xAI competing at the frontier of frontier AI). MSCI inclusion on June 12 is confirmed, which will generate additional structural demand from index funds post-listing for 30 to 90 days. The bullish case is Starlink alone is worth $400 to $600 billion today and the rest is the optionality; the bear case is the optionality has fully priced itself. Both of these theses are equally defensible. Position sizing should account for this.