British Pound gains ground to near 1.3400 ahead of US CPI release
- GBP/USD gains traction to near 1.3390 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Iranian officials warned Gulf states have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent US and Israeli strikes.
- The US May CPI inflation report will take center stage on Wednesday.
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3390 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. On Friday, the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product data will be in the spotlight.
Financial markets had expected the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates twice this year to 3.25%. Since the US-Iran war began, the situation has reversed, and now a rise of 25 basis points (bpd) before December is projected, according to CNBC.
Nonetheless, the potential upside for the British Pound (GBP) might be limited as renewed tensions in the Middle East weigh on the riskier assets. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday warned that its neighbors in the Gulf have a “legal and moral responsibility” to prevent American and Israeli strikes.
This statement came as the US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran on Tuesday in what it called a proportional response to the shooting down of a US helicopter gunship near the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier.
The US CPI inflation report will be closely watched as it could give some hints about the US interest rate path. If the reports show hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could lead traders to price in a higher probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates, which would provide some support to the USD against the GBP.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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