Trump’s trade fight puts Silicon Valley and global internet services at risk

President Donald Trump’s push to reshape global trade has overlooked the export of digital services. a major American strength.  Experts warn that this blind spot could have serious consequences for Silicon Valley and the broader digital economy.

Allianz Trade, an intelligence firm that tracks global trade risks, published a report on Tuesday based on a survey of 4,500 companies worldwide. It aimed to measure the impact of rising trade tensions and warned that a focus on the United States’ trillion-dollar goods deficit threatens to overlook the fastest-growing part of global trade, the “invisible exports” of financial and digital services.

Though tracking these services is challenging, the report cites estimates showing a US digital trade surplus of at least $600 billion, including digital advertising, video streaming, cloud platforms, and online payment services.

The report calls this “hidden trade immense”. It says these invisible exports have greatly outpaced the growth of goods exports over the past two decades, yet they do not show up in standard trade statistics.

Allianz Trade warns that if Washington does not “rethink trade policy and narratives” to begin tracking these services more closely, it could undermine one of America’s innovative companies and massive data infrastructure, just as the president is negotiating deals with much of the world.

The report stresses that overlooking this trade could leave US firms exposed to foreign retaliation.

Furthermore, US digital exports now make up about 3.6% of all trade worldwide and continue to grow quickly. These unseen exchanges add to US trade revenues without filling any container ships.

In today’s economy, routers and data centers are as crucial as ports and factories for keeping America in a leading position. Yet, President Trump’s current plan requires countries hit by his reciprocal tariffs to strike a deal by July 8, a deadline he admits may not allow talks with every partner.

US trade partners are already exploring tariffs or taxes on digital services

Experts agree that if these measures become permanent, they might damage the US tech industry and even split the internet by forcing companies to tailor their services to different regions. Jovan Kurbalija, a former diplomat and head of the DiploFoundation, warned in an April blog that a shift into the digital domain could carry “far-reaching consequences” for Silicon Valley and the global digital economy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed to the Financial Times last month that she is planning countermeasures if talks between the European Union and the United States fail.

Those could include a tax on digital advertising revenues aimed at firms like Amazon, Google, and Facebook, as well as tariffs on services traded across the entire EU market.

Kurbalija said that beyond Europe, Trump’s goods tariffs give other countries both moral and tactical reasons to fast-track digital taxes under the banner of “reclaiming revenue from foreign tech ‘free riders.’”

Half of US firms considering more investment in China

In an opinion piece, Neal K. Shah, CEO of CareYaya Health Technologies, warned that “tariffs on digital services would directly reduce revenues for American tech companies.”

He said a full-blown digital trade war could harm the Internet’s infrastructure and force firms to operate “parallel digital universes with incompatible standards.”

Shah said that means higher costs, less market access, and slower growth for startups and innovators. He added that splitting the digital world could end globally scalable platforms, scare away investors, and cut world GDP by up to 5% over the next decade.

Trump’s answer to these threats remains more tariffs. He has said that “only America should be allowed to tax American firms,” Reuters reported. In February, he issued a memo ordering research into how to respond to digital service taxes, including new duties.

Yet Allianz Trade found that many US firms are not returning operations home. Instead, half of those surveyed are weighing increased investments in China, while only eight percent plan cuts there. Others said they are rerouting supply chains to Southeast Asia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Latin America.

Experts like Bertin Martens of the Brussels think tank Bruegel say imposing digital services tariffs is hard in practice. Laws barring measures against platforms with a significant local presence require detailed user data. Some see open-source technology as the clear winner if tariffs force firms to seek alternatives that sidestep trade barriers.

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