Bitcoin price stuck below $70K as retail positions itself for pre-halving play
- Bitcoin price remains below $70,000, with current pullback likely to bottom out at $67,711.
- BTC hashrate has tripled as miners count roughly 21 days to fourth halving.
- Jim Cramer: “better sellers than buyers” as markets slide toward oversold on lower time frames.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is coming out of the weekend with a horizontal consolidation on higher time frames. However, lower time frames show more action as retail markets on Monday position themselves for the pre-halving rally.
Also Read: Week Ahead: Bitcoin flashes sell signal, but altcoins ignore it
Retail positions itself for pre-halving play
Bitcoin price dropped during the early hours of the New York session on Monday, bottoming out at $68,200. The move saw nearly $250 million in total liquidations across the market. It comes as the market walks into the Bitcoin halving month, with the event barely three weeks out.
Bitcoin Halving now 19 April - 18 days away.
— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) April 1, 2024
Typically pre-halving flush is 20 days from halving. pic.twitter.com/KHsyOiwq4g
Typically, pre-halving flush is 20 days from halving. Before that, however, markets tend to rally with tailwinds from FOMO and the ‘buy the rumor’ situation.
Standing at the ready, miners are also making deliberate moves as seen in the skyrocketing BTC hash rate. It means that the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin has increased significantly, indicating that more miners are participating in the network.
#Bitcoin hash rate has tripled since the last ATH, despite its price remaining the same.
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 1, 2024
Price is yet to follow the fundamentals pic.twitter.com/9KYcNRcD1z
According to CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer, sellers are better placed than buyers currently as BTC downside momentum looks likely. More closely, however, it is imperative to note that the April 1 sweep saw Bitcoin price take out the March 27 lows below $68,500. The onus is now on the bulls to keep holding above this range.
Open Interest, funding rate FAQs
Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.
Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.
Bitcoin price outlook as halving month kicks off
A reversal could push the market to $73,500, which is the next major resistance before the Bitcoin price can reclaim its $73,777 peak. Beyond this level would be a stronger bullish region between $74,000 and $75,000.
On the other hand, a decline below $68,500 would be a bearish sign for the short term, potentially sending Bitcoin price to $63,500, providing a buying opportunity for the late bulls before the halving.
Multiple technical indicators suggest the downtrend is still not over, likely until Bitcoin price tests the midline of the market range at $67,711, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci placeholder. In a dire case, BTC could pivot around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67,307.
The histograms of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are dropping toward the zero line as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nosedives to show falling momentum. These, coupled with the dwindling volume indicator suggests a weakening bullish trend.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
Conversely, a reentry by the bulls could see Bitcoin price recover to overcome resistance due to the 50-day SMA at $69,565. Extended gains could set the pace for BTC price to reclaim above the $69,000 threshold.
A candlestick close above this landmark level would encourage more bulls to hit $73,500 before taking the $73,777 all-time high back. Such a move, denoting an 8% upswing, would set the tone for a higher peak above $74,000. A four-hour close above the range high would be the first step.
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