GBP/USD rises to near 1.3450 due to improved market sentiment, UoM Consumer Sentiment eyed
- GBP/USD appreciates as the US Dollar loses ground following the dovish Fedspeak.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook.
- The Pound Sterling received support from mixed UK employment figures.
GBP/USD gains ground after registering small losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3440 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower due to dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than the pre-pandemic neutral rate.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that he believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.
However, the US Dollar gained ground following the stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Thursday. US Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June versus -0.9% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 3.9%, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Building Permits, and Housing Starts will be eyed later on Friday.
The GBP/USD pair also drew support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) received support from a mixed United Kingdom (UK) job market report, which showed more employment levels but also a higher unemployment rate.
The UK ILO Unemployment rose to 4.7% in the three months to May, against the market expectations of remaining unchanged at 4.6%. Claimant Count Change showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased 25.9K in June, compared with a revised increase of 15.3K in May, above the expected 17.9K figure.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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