United Kingdom Retail Sales falls 0.4% MoM in September vs. -0.1% estimates
Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) fell by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in September after rising by 0.7% in August (revised from 0.5%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. The market forecast was for a 0.1% decline in the reported month.
The core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, dropped by 0.7% MoM in September, compared with the previous increase of 0.9% (revised from 0.6%) and the estimated -0.1% figure.
The annual Retail Sales in the UK came in at 0.8% in September versus a rise of 2.7% prior (revised from 2.4%) and 1.0% expectations.
The annual core Retail Sales increased 0.8% in the same month, against August’s 2.9% (revised from 2.7%). The reading came in below the consensus of 1.5%.
Market reaction
The British Pound (GBP) edges slightly lower after the release of the weak UK Retail Sales data for August. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is down 0.09% on the day at 1.3388.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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