Australian Dollar: Overbought rally eyeing 0.7070 cap against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD has repeatedly exceeded their short-term upside expectations, now trading near 0.7036 with scope for further gains, though momentum is slowing and resistance at 0.7045–0.7070 is expected to cap. Their 1–3 week view turned positive, targeting 0.7070 while lifting strong support to 0.6985, even as a prior 1–3 month view had highlighted downside risks toward 0.6923 and 0.6866.

Aussie advance faces nearby resistance

"24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD rose more than we expected on Tuesday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “We did not expect upward momentum to strengthen so quickly as AUD soared to a high of 0.7017, closing 0.34% higher at 0.7003. While further AUD strength is not ruled out, negative divergence is forming on momentum indicators, and any advance is likely to stay within a range of 0.6985/0.7020.” AUD once again rose more than we expected, reaching a high of 0.7036. Today, there is a chance for AUD to rise further, but slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggest any advance is unlikely to break above 0.7045. We do not expect the major resistance at 0.7070 to come into view. Support is at 0.7015; a breach of 0.7005 would indicate the advance is pausing."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our AUD view from neutral to positive yesterday (21 Oct, spot at 0.7005). We indicated that “upward momentum is starting to build, and AUD could rise toward 0.7035 as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6965.” We did not expect AUD to reach 0.7035 so quickly as it rose to a high of 0.7036. AUD could advance further, though the next technical target at 0.7070 may not come into view so soon. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 0.6985."

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