US ADP Employment Change 4-week average drops to 18.50K
- US private employers added an average of 18.50K jobs per week in early October.
- The loss of momentum in hiring remained unchanged.
Private-sector hiring in the US lost some traction in early October. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 18.50K jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 3.
That marks a modest drop from the prior reading (24.75K), showing extra cooling in hiring.
Market reaction
The Greenback trades on the defensive on Tuesday, returning to the sub-102.00 region when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The move lower in the US Dollar comes in tandem with declining US Treasury yields across the curve and despite higher crude oil prices.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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