CEE FX: Inflation data versus global Dollar strength – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy week for CEE with key inflation releases and IMF meetings, while regional FX remains driven mainly by global factors. ING keeps a broadly bearish stance on CEE currencies, expecting EUR/PLN to stay near 4.40 and the Forint exposed to higher energy prices and a stronger Dollar, while retaining a bullish view on the Koruna towards EUR/CZK 24.250.

Regional data under global FX headwinds

"This week’s focus is on regional inflation releases and speakers. Romania’s September inflation is due tomorrow; we expect it to rise from 6.2% to 6.4% and, consistent with the central bank’s guidance last week, increase further through year-end. In the Czech Republic, final data should confirm September inflation at 2.5%, while Czech National Bank core inflation is likely to edge up from 3.0% to 3.1-3.2%, above the central bank’s forecast."

"Poland’s headline inflation should be confirmed at 4.0% on Wednesday, followed by a likely drop in core inflation from 3.3% to 3.1% on Thursday, giving the National Bank of Poland more room to manoeuvre. Hungary releases wage data on Friday; wage growth remains high relative to the region and continues to pose inflationary risks."

"Beyond the data calendar, attention will turn to the IMF meetings in Bangkok, where CEE officials are expected to speak. Hungary may publish next year’s draft budget and medium-term fiscal outlook late in the week."

"CEE FX remains primarily driven by global factors, and our bearish regional bias is broadly unchanged. After the NBP meeting, EUR/PLN rose into our expected 4.380-4.400 range and is likely to stay near its upper end in the coming days."

"The forint is awaiting the government’s 2027 budget announcement but remains exposed to higher energy prices and a stronger US dollar. The koruna remains the outlier, supported by a wider interest-rate differential. We retain a bullish koruna view and expect EUR/CZK to move towards 24.250."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)