Hungary: Retail data may offer upside surprise – ING

ING’s Peter Virovacz expects Hungary’s final 2Q26 GDP release to confirm a weaker-than-hoped quarter, with agriculture and construction dragging and services plus industry providing support. Investment is seen as a significant negative surprise on the demand side. Early 3Q data, especially July retail sales, could rebound on World Cup effects and lower fuel prices, offering some upside risk.

Weak second quarter, brighter retail outlook

"The Statistical Office will release further details on second-quarter economic activity, with final 2Q26 GDP data due on 1 September. Following a strong first quarter, expectations were for similarly robust growth in the second quarter. The estimate data was disappointing, and we will now find out why."

"We expect agriculture and construction to be major drags on growth. Services will be shown as the main driver, with a positive contribution from industry as well. In terms of final use, consumption remains king, but we anticipate a significant negative impact from investment activity – potentially the most important surprise factor."

"The first hard data regarding the third quarter will be released on 4 September. Following the disappointing retail performance in June, we are expecting a rebound. This will be partly due to the effect of the FIFA World Cup which boosted both food and non-food retail."

"With fuel prices dropping in the first half of the month and expectations of future price increases, fuel sales may have increased as well. Overall, there is some potential for an upside surprise in the July retail sales figures."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)