Forex Today: Markets await clarity on next step in US-Iran peace talks
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 16:
Major currency pairs hold steady to start the European session on Thursday as investors await clarity on how the negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran will take shape. Later in the day, the US economic calendar will offer the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the Industrial Production report for March.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.02% | -1.25% | -0.43% | -1.00% | -2.67% | -1.79% | -1.09% | |
| EUR | 1.02% | -0.23% | 0.54% | 0.03% | -1.60% | -0.77% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 1.25% | 0.23% | 0.71% | 0.26% | -1.37% | -0.54% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | -0.54% | -0.71% | -0.56% | -2.15% | -1.26% | -0.67% | |
| CAD | 1.00% | -0.03% | -0.26% | 0.56% | -1.52% | -0.71% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 2.67% | 1.60% | 1.37% | 2.15% | 1.52% | 0.89% | 1.51% | |
| NZD | 1.79% | 0.77% | 0.54% | 1.26% | 0.71% | -0.89% | 0.71% | |
| CHF | 1.09% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.67% | 0.09% | -1.51% | -0.71% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Wedneday, US President Donald Trump reiterated that the Iran war could end very soon and added that the Strait of Hormuz is opening. Meanwhile, several news outlets claimed that the US was seeing a two-week extension to the ceasefire. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denied these reports but noted that peace talks are "ongoing" and "productive." Iranian officials and Pakistan’s military chief will reportedly meet in Tehran on Thursday to discuss messages exchanged between Iran and the US. There is also the possibility of a second round of US-Iran talks taking place in the near term.
Wall Street's main indexes traded mixed midweek. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day marginally lower, while the S&P 500 Index rose 0.8%. Early Thursday, US stock index futures rise between 0.1% and 0.4%. In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) Index continues to fluctuate in a narrow channel at around 98.00 after closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday.
The data from Australia showed early Thursday that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in March, as anticipated. In this period, the Employment Change was +17.9K, compared to the market expectation of +20K. AUD/USD builds on its weekly gains and trades at its highest level since June 2022, slightly below 0.7200.
China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Thursday. This print followed the 4.5% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2025 and came in stronger than analysts' forecast of 4.8%.
The UK's Office for Natonal Statistics (ONS) announced earlier in the day that the UK's GDP grew 0.5% on a monthly basis in February, beating the market expectation of 0.1% by a wide margin. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production rose 0.5% in the this period, while Manufacturing Production declined 0.1%. GBP/USD showed no reaction to these figures and was lasts seen moving sideways slightly above 1.3550.
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.1800 after closing unchanged on Wednesday. Later in the session, the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish the accounts of its March policy meeting.
USD/JPY stages a rebound toward 159.00 after dropping below 158.30 earlier in the day. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she had a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange rate and agreed to keep close dialogue. "Many central bankers stated wait and see stance as raising interest rates could negatively impact economy," Katayama added.
Gold (XAU/USD) lost about 1% on Wednesday and snapped a two-day winning streak. XAU/USD holds its ground early Thursday and trades in positive territory above $4,800.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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