ECB’s Lane: Inflation readings could be higher in March and April
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warned of higher inflationary pressures in the Eurozone in the next two months during European trading hours at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt on Wednesday.
Remarks
We'll be considering at every meeting what the scenario is.
Drop in consumer confidence was quite big.
You can see downturn in PMIs.
Inflation expectations show significant effect for first year, then smaller.
Market is expecting big readings in March, April then normal.
The market dynamic suggests a price-level jump.
Understanding selling price expectations will be important.
Wage tracker is a good leading indicator for negotiated wages.
Market reaction
EUR/USD remains broadly sideways near 1.1600 despite high inflation warnings from ECB's Lane.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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