Take a deep breath – Commerzbank

After the big boost in the US Dollar (USD) last week, the party is likely to be over for now. There are still a few US data points on the agenda during the week, such as tomorrow's new CPI data for October or retail sales and industrial production on Friday. On the one hand, the Fed is unlikely to change its course in the short term, because inflation is considered to be under control, although it is likely to have risen slightly again in October, as it did in the two previous months. And on the other hand, the economy remains resilient, so the data are unlikely to bring any excitement to the market, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

The roller coaster ride to start up again by the end of January

“The ‘showdown’ between Trump and the Fed will only come next year, if at all, when the new president is in office and if it becomes apparent in a few months' time that his economic policy is having an inflationary effect. Therefore, the future inflation data are crucial for the dollar, and not the data that will be released this week.”

“With the realization of who will be the next US president, and the big question of how and when he can or will implement some of his plans, the dollar will remain the big driver of exchange rates in the future. It will determine what happens in the currency markets. Yesterday, for example, the possible appointment of Robert Lighthizer, a well-known protectionist hardliner, as US trade representative, caused nervousness in Europe and let the dollar to trend firmer.”

“In this respect, we in the foreign exchange market should be pleased about a hopefully calm end to the year with a few fluctuations in EUR/USD (but in all likelihood with a tendency towards a stronger dollar). Because the roller coaster ride will probably start up again by the end of January at the latest, when Trump really gets going again.”