Canadian Dollar steadies despite lower oil prices
- USD/CAD may weaken as the US Dollar struggles amid fading risk aversion.
- US Vice President JD Vance stated that President Trump may release the preliminary US-Iran peace agreement ahead of schedule.
- The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar faces potential challenges as sliding oil prices weigh heavily on the resource-reliant currency.
USD/CAD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 1.3990 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) experiences downward pressure as easing risk aversion weighs on the currency, a shift largely driven by growing expectations of a breakthrough peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Momentum toward an agreement has accelerated, with US Vice President JD Vance stating on Tuesday that President Donald Trump may release a preliminary agreement to end the war ahead of schedule, following the president's earlier comments that the framework had already been signed. Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that a new round of negotiations aimed at reaching a final, comprehensive peace deal is set to begin in Switzerland.
Meanwhile, global market attention is shifting heavily toward Wednesday's pivotal Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. The US central bank is widely expected to maintain a cautious "wait-and-see" approach, keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Investors and traders will be closely monitoring the post-meeting press conference, seeking crucial insights into how newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to guide monetary policy into this next era.
However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid lower oil prices. It is important to note that lower oil prices put downward pressure on the CAD, as Canada is the largest crude exporter.
Crude oil prices declined as anticipation grew over a looming United States (US)-Iran peace deal that could significantly boost global supply. The two nations are scheduled to sign an interim agreement in Switzerland this Friday, which would grant Tehran broad economic incentives and allow the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports. Furthermore, international tankers are expected to resume safe transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz once the pact officially takes effect.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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