USD mixed to softer in quiet trade – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is opening a little softer overall but movement is limited across the major currencies and there is a sense of markets marking time ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data—and perhaps tonight’s US presidential debate, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD drifts in featureless trade as markets await debate, CPI

“The NOK and NZD are leading intraday gains for the currencies while the MXN is a relative underperformer, along with the ZAR. European stocks are mixed and US equity futures are flat. Bonds are not showing much interest in moving either. There are no major data reports today. The Fed’s Barr (on Basel III) and Bowman (stress testing) are speaking but the FOMC blackout is in effect, meaning no comments on the policy outlook.”

“The DXY is consolidating on the short-term charts and is still trying to take fuller advantage of the rebound in price seen at the end of August which signaled a potential recovery. Dollar index option pricing suggests a moderation in bearish sentiment as short-term risk reversal trade around neutral levels.”

“Swaps have priced out some risk of a 50bps cut from the Fed next week but still reflect the small chance that a larger cut could emerge—which is not an unreasonable position, in my view. Look for more range trading in the majors for now. DXY gains above 102 may signal scope for a little more strength. Support for the index sits at 100.5.”