Ethereum Price Forecast: Whales secure profits, sparking 4% dip with over $1 billion worth of ETH distribution

Ethereum price today: $2,620

• Ethereum whales booked profits from its recent rise with over $1 billion worth of ETH redistribution.
• Options data shows a 30% chance for ETH to smash the $3,000 level before the end of Q1.
• Ethereum could find support near $2,560 as its consolidation spans into the third week.

Ethereum (ETH) dipped 4% on Tuesday following rising selling activity from whales who have cut their holdings by over $1 billion in the past two days. Despite the recent selling activity, ETH's exchange supply shows investors still hold a long-term bullish bias.

Ethereum whales book profits, redistribute $1 billion worth of ETH

Ethereum whale addresses have been shedding their holdings at an accelerated pace in the past two days, per Santiment data. These addresses holding between 10K-100K ETH have distributed nearly 400K ETH worth over $1 billion during the period.

ETH Supply Distribution (10K-100K) & Age Consumed. Source: Santiment

The accompanying spike in the Age Consumed metric shows that the distributed coins may have been previously idle tokens intended for long-term holding.

Age Consumed measures the number of coins changing addresses daily multiplied by the days they last moved.

The Network Realized Profit/Loss showed investors secured $77 million in profits — a one-week high — from the distribution, potentially spurring ETH's recent decline.

ETH Network Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Santiment

The top altcoin began the week on a positive note, rising to a 12-day high of $2,850 while outperforming major cryptos including Bitcoin, XRP and Solana. However, it has since retreated, sustaining nearly a 4% decline in the past 24 hours.

Despite the recent selling activity, Ethereum investors have continued to show a long-term bullish bias by increasing their exchange withdrawals.

Investors have withdrawn nearly 740K ETH from exchanges in the past two weeks, stretching the percentage of ETH's total supply in private wallets to 84.3%, per CryptoQuant's data.

On the other hand, the low exchange supply may not be entirely bullish due to ETH's usage across the decentralized finance (DeFi) landscape. Investors could even short ETH via decentralized perpetual exchanges or lending and borrowing protocols.

Meanwhile, crypto derivatives exchange Derive founder Nick Forster shared in a note to FXStreet that "there's now a 30% chance [among options traders] ETH will hit above $3K by the end of the quarter, up from 28% last week."

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could find support at $2,560

Ethereum experienced $55.08 million in futures liquidations in the past 24 hours, per Coinglass data. The total amount of long and short liquidations accounted for $41.16 million and $13.92 million, respectively.

The top altcoin is struggling to find direction after seeing a rejection near the $2,850 resistance.

ETH is now stretching its consolidation between $2,500 and $2,850 into the third week, mirroring Bitcoin and the wider crypto market's lack of directional bias.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

If history repeats, ETH could stretch the horizontal move beyond Q1 2025 as it did between August and November 2024 when it breached the $2,850 level.

With ETH's consistent selling pressure near $2,850, a strong market catalyst may be needed to spur a breakout.

On the downside, ETH could find support near the $2,560 support level. If ETH breaches this level, it could bounce off the lower boundary of a descending channel.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its neutral level, indicating dominant bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region, signaling a potential reversal.

A daily candlestick close below $2,200 will invalidate the thesis.