Oil: No change to OPEC+ output policy – ING

The oil market gave back a lot of its gains yesterday after Mexico and Canada came to a deal with the US, which saw a delay in the implementation of tariffs. Both Mexico and Canada agreed to put more resources on their border to combat the flow of fentanyl to the US. The delay has seen crude oil prices coming under further pressure in early morning trading today with NYMEX WTI down more than 1%, while NYMEX RBOB and ULSD are under relatively more pressure, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

OPEC+ recommends no change to its output policy

“Unsurprisingly fears over tariffs on Canadian oil saw the differential for West Canada Select (WCS) widening relative to WTI. The differential widened by US$1.55/bbl to a discount of US$17.84/bbl yesterday – the weakest the differential has been since July 2024. The differential has been weakening for much of this year, given concerns over tariffs. Clearly, with still plenty of uncertainty over trade it would be wise for Canada to start investing in further pipeline capacity from its producing regions to its east and west coasts.”

“OPEC+ held its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting yesterday, and as widely expected the group recommended no change to its output policy. This suggests that the group is likely to go ahead with the unwinding of their additional voluntary supply cuts from April. The group is scheduled to bring back around 2.2m b/d of supply over an 18-month period starting in April. Obviously, the return of this supply will still be dependent on market conditions.”

“Preliminary production numbers show that OPEC production fell by 70k b/d MoM to 27.03m b/d in January according to a Bloomberg survey. Iraq led the declines, with its output falling by 110k b/d to 4.01m b/d. This reduction was largely due to a fire at the Rumaila oilfield.”