IEA cuts 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 903,000 b/d

In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 903,000 barrels per day (b/d) from 970,000 b/d.

Additional takeaways

China slowdown will continue to weigh on global oil demand growth.

Global oil-demand growth continues to decelerate.

Global demand rose by 800,000 b/d on year in 1H.

Global downturn driven by rapid slowdown in Chinese consumption.

Keeps 2025 global oil-demand growth forecast broadly stable at 954,000 b/d.

Trims 2024 total demand forecast to average of 103 mln b/d from 103.1 mln b/d.

Keeps 2024 non-OPEC+ production growth estimate at 1.5 mln b/d.

Trims 2025 total demand forecast to average of 103.9 mln b/d from 104 mln b/d.

Keeps 2025 non-OPEC+ production growth estimate at 1.5 mln b/d.

Global oil supply rose by 80,000 b/d in August, partly due to libyan losses.

Keeps 2024 total oil-supply forecast at average of 102.9 mln b/d.

Slightly raises 2025 total oil-supply forecast to average of 105 mln b/d from 104.9 mln b/d.

Lowers 2024 global refinery output forecast to 83 mln b/d from 83.3 mln b/d.

Lowers 2025 global refinery output forecast to 83.7 mln b/d from 83.9 mln b/d.

Russian oil exports fell by 290,000 b/d on-month to 7 mln b/d in August.

Russian commercial export revenue fell by $1.6 bln on-month to $15.3 bln in August.