Copper: Record highs on tightening supply – ING

ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that LME copper has surged to a record high above $14,000/t, with a sharply backwardated cash/3M spread underscoring near-term tightness. Falling LME inventories, weaker Chilean output expectations, and strong speculative net longs on COMEX are all cited as key drivers of Copper’s ongoing multi-week rally.

Copper rally driven by tight fundamentals

"LME copper rose 1.7% this morning to a record high of $14,396/t, extending its rally for a third session and marking a seventh consecutive week of gains. The cash/3M spread widened to a backwardation of $518.5/t, the strongest since October 2021, highlighting acute near-term supply tightness."

"LME inventories fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 tonnes, their lowest level since February. Continued flows to the US and China, where prices trade at premiums to the LME, have drained stocks, while nearly half of remaining inventories are already earmarked for withdrawal."

"On the supply side, Chile's copper commission Cochilco expects national copper output to fall 2.6% year-on-year to 5.3mt in 2026, reflecting weaker production from Codelco and BHP operations. Copper is now up around 16% year-to-date."

"Speculative positioning remains supportive, with money managers increasing net long COMEX copper positions by 3,084 lots to 80,880 lots, the highest since February 2021."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)