WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retest 100-day SMA as momentum stays bullish
- WTI eases as traders book profits following Thursday’s 6% rally.
- Bullish momentum holds firm, with the RSI near 65 and the ADX pointing to a strengthening trend.
- The 100-day SMA near $88 provides immediate support.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eases on Friday as traders lock in profits following a 6% jump the previous day. However, the widening Middle East war limits the downside as supply risks intensify around two major energy-shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
At the time of writing, WTI trades around $89 per barrel, still up roughly 9% this week.
From a technical perspective, the outlook is firmly bullish. WTI has rebounded from near $67 at the start of the month and subsequently reclaimed its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The price is now retesting the 100-day SMA at $88.30, which acts as immediate support.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 65 after briefly entering overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory, suggesting that buyers retain control. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) in the low 30s points to a strengthening trend.
On the topside, Thursday’s high of $92.25 acts as immediate resistance, followed by the $95.00 horizontal level. A sustained break above this area could open the door toward the psychological $100.00 mark, followed by the war-driven peak near $113.00.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the nearby 100-day SMA around $88.31, followed by the 50-day SMA near $82.16 and then the 200-day SMA around $74.55, levels that together define a broad demand zone that would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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