Brent: Elevated conflict risk supports higher path – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong revise their Brent Oil profile higher as the US–Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Oil flows near a standstill. They now expect Brent to trade around USD100/bbl through mid-2026 before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027, warning that persistent shipping paralysis could turn temporary disruptions into lasting supply losses.

Conflict-driven supply risks keep Brent high

"No clear path to de-escalation as the US–Iran conflict enters week three; limited vessel movement keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and oil flows at a near standstill."

"We revise Brent forecast higher, with prices staying elevated at around USD100/bbl through mid-year before easing towards USD70/bbl by early 2027."

"Persistent shipping paralysis is forcing Gulf output shut ins, raising the risk that short lived disruptions turn into durable supply losses."

"Mitigating measures still leave a sizable gap, with up to 10mb/d of offsets unable to fully counter a prolonged Strait shutdown."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)