GBP/USD declines steepens as hotter CPI bolsters Greenback
- GBP/USD backslid for the eighth straight day on Tuesday.
- US CPI inflation rose in June, pushing down on Fed rate cut hopes.
- Coming up on Wednesday: UK CPI inflation, US PPI business inflation.
GBP/USD shed weight for the eighth straight session on Tuesday. Global risk appetite soured after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose in June, casting a long, tariff-fueld shadow over investors that were hoping for a quick pivot into fresh rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the third quarter.
US CPI inflation rose through the tail end of the second quarter. Despite the figures mostly keeping in line with or beating median forecasts, investors are still feeling the pressure from rising price pressures. Annualized headline CPI inflation rose to 2.7% YoY in June, moving in the opposite direction of the Fed policy target range of 2%. With inflation pressures still simmering away in the background, already-thin market hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed have evaporated.
Hello inflation, goodbye rate cuts
According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders have fully priced in a rate hold at the Fed’s July rate meeting. Hopes for a September rate cut also got knocked back post-CPI, with 44% odds of a continued hold on rates on the books. Rate markets are still holding out for two cuts in 2025 despite still-warm inflation measures, with 80% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut priced in for October.
Cable traders will have to buckle down for a second and third go around the inflation carousel on Wednesday: United Kingdom (UK) CPI inflation figures are due early in the London session, followed by further US inflation data from the Producer Price Index (PPI). A fresh batch of UK labor data is also due on Thursday, followed by US Retail Sales figures.
GBP/USD price forecast
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has tumbled nearly 3% top-to-bottom against the US Dollar, falling from a multi-year high posted on the first day of July. The pair has backslid cleanly through the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3500, and sustained selling pressure has Cable knocking on a rising trendline from January’s lows near 1.2200.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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