The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of key economic data. However, the downside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, driven by the downbeat ADP national employment report.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that trade surplus narrowed to 2,238M month-over-month in May, against 5,091M expected and 4,859M (revised from 5,431M) in April. Meanwhile, Exports fell by 2.7% MoM from -1.7% (revised from -2.4%) prior. Imports increased by 3.8% MoM, against the previous increase of 1.6% (revised from 1.1%).
The S&P Global Australia Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.6 in June from the previous reading of 50.5. The reading has marked a ninth successive month of growth and the fastest pace since March. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 51.8 from 50.6 prior, indicating the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024.
In Australia’s close trading partner, China, Caixin Services PMI declined to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, missing the market forecast of 51.0.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6570 on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Additionally, the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that short-term price momentum is stronger.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could retest the eight-month high of 0.6590, which was marked on July 1. A successful breach above this level could support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6660.
The nine-day EMA at 0.6549 appears as the primary support. A break below this level would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6490, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 0.6466.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.00% | |
EUR | 0.05% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.09% | |
GBP | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.19% | 0.17% | -0.07% | |
JPY | 0.09% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.14% | -0.03% | |
CAD | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
AUD | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.18% | -0.26% | |
NZD | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.14% | -0.14% | 0.18% | -0.25% | |
CHF | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.10% | 0.26% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2,238M
Consensus: 5,091M
Previous: 5,413M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics