EUR: ECB reinforcing hawkish tone – ING

This week’s moves are almost entirely driven by US-related events. The only Euro input comes from scheduled ECB speeches, which so far have reinforced the less dovish tone set by President Christine Lagarde last week, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD’s direction today is set by the US Dollar for now

"Croatia’s central bank chief, Boris Vucic, confirmed the new consensus on the ECB yesterday, saying the bank is in a 'very good position' and should wait for 'another projection' – meaning September – before making its next move. Markets are pricing in 15bp for September, 17bp for October, and 30bp for December."

"From an FX angle, the impact isn’t huge. EUR/USD surged last week on the ECB’s hawkish shift, but short-term rate differentials aren’t driving G10 FX beyond central bank events. As noted, EUR/USD’s direction today will be mostly set by the dollar, with some support likely near 1.1400 and a possible push above 1.1500 by the week’s end."