Indian Rupee flattens as focus shifts to RBI policy
- The Indian Rupee opens flat around 95.33 against the US Dollar in the countdown to the RBI policy.
- Investors expect the RBI to leave the Repo Rate unchanged.
- Financial markets await the outcome of US-Iran talks.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat at around 95.33 against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The Indian currency is expected to trade sideways as investors await the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
RBI seen holding rates with inflation still in target band
Analysts at Commerzbank note that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its current policy stance, with the central bank "expected to leave the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 5.25% at its next meeting on 5 August." They acknowledge that "inflation risks remain tilted to the upside due to higher global commodity prices and a weaker monsoon season," but point out that the latest June CPI report "showed it rose 4.4% YoY, which was within RBI's 2-6% target range," reinforcing the case for policy continuity in the near term.
Oil prices rise amid US-Iran deal uncertainty
Oil prices attract bids on Tuesday as financial markets remain concerned about the outcome of talks between the United States (US) and Iran. On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that discussions with Iran are going on, but he doesn’t know why they are denying it in the media. Trump added, “This is the last chance for them to sign a good document.” He further added, “They’re going to go quickly one way or the other. It’s not very complex. We’re talking about the opening of the strait, having it open literally by tomorrow—completely open,” Reuters reported.
Over the weekend, US President Trump shelved planned attacks on Iran, stating that Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear conditions. This led to a significant plunge in oil prices.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 1.3% higher to near Rs. 7,745.
Higher oil prices bode poorly for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
US JOLTS Job Openings data awaited
During the Asian session, the US Dollar clings to Monday’s recovery move, with investors awaiting the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, reflects strength near 100.00.
This week, the major event for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains under 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades at around 95.33, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.7234.
The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests upside remains capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 44.18 leans slightly soft, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 95.72, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed for a more constructive recovery toward the July 29 high near 96.00. On the downside, major support levels are the July 7 low at 94.80 and the June low at 94.21.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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