Forex Today: New wave of US tariffs, deepening Middle East conflict keep markets on edge
Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 24:
Financial markets remain risk-averse heading into the weekend as investors now have to assess the impact of a new wave of tariffs imposed by the United States, while keeping a close eye on news coming out of the Middle East. The economic calendar will feature preliminary July Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone, the UK and the US on Friday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.99% | 0.90% | 0.43% | -0.22% | 0.90% | 1.03% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | 0.61% | 0.47% | 0.04% | -0.60% | 0.51% | 0.65% | |
| GBP | -0.99% | -0.61% | -0.15% | -0.56% | -1.19% | -0.09% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.90% | -0.47% | 0.15% | -0.38% | -1.07% | -0.04% | 0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.43% | -0.04% | 0.56% | 0.38% | -0.61% | 0.34% | 0.65% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.60% | 1.19% | 1.07% | 0.61% | 1.12% | 1.29% | |
| NZD | -0.90% | -0.51% | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.34% | -1.12% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -1.03% | -0.65% | -0.08% | -0.24% | -0.65% | -1.29% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US has announced late Thursday that it has imposed new tariffs on more than 50 trading partners, just before the temporary levy on global imports was set to expire. A US official argued that they are not just replicating the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court back in February, instead they are looking to combat forced labor in goods production. "No countries enforce forced labor bans to the level of the US, giving them an unfair advantage," the administration official explained.
Tariff reshuffle seen as FX non-event but policy risks linger
Analysts at Commerzbank judge that the latest US tariff measures are unlikely to move currencies in the near term, arguing that “the impact on the FX markets is likely to be limited for the time being” because “the new tariffs replace the expiring general tariffs of 10%, so the effective tariff rate is unlikely to rise significantly,” while the White House has also “published a 55-page list of exemptions.” However, they caution that “it is clear that the US administration is sticking to its tariff policy, so we could see further surprises in the coming weeks.”
US President Donald Trump said that he is considering launching a "massive attack" on Iran, adding that he will soon decide whether to resume major military operations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the US action a “mindless aggression” and said that the US will now have to pay a "heavier price" for a deal to end the war. Meanwhile, the US has launched air strikes for the 13th consecutive night, with Iranian media reporting blasts in several cities, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, and Bandar Abbas.
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate corrects lower early Friday and trades slightly below $90 after rising about 6% on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) Index moves sideways near 101.40 after touching its highest level in three weeks above 101.50 late Thursday.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key rates unchanged following the July policy meeting. In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from hinting whether they are likely to consider a rate hike in September, noting that they have key data to assess that will be released between now and the next meeting. EUR/USD lost about 0.3% on Thursday and entered a consolidation phase below 1.1400 on Friday. Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed that the HCOB Composite PMI improved to 51.2 in July from 49.5 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 49.8 and showed that private sector's business activity recoverg into the expansion territory.
Euro vulnerability persists despite ECB’s hawkish stance
Strategists at OCBC note that the ECB is likely not done tightening, stating that they “continue to expect a final 25bp increase to 2.50% in September, although the risks are tilted towards an additional hike.” However, they caution that “even with the ECB maintaining a hawkish bias amid rising energy prices, relative terms-of-trade dynamics favour the USD over the EUR.” In their view, the Euro remains structurally disadvantaged on the energy front, as “Europe remains a net energy importer, while the US is a net energy exporter, making the euro more vulnerable to sustained increases in oil prices.”
Following the bullish action seen in the first half of the week, Gold reversed its direction on Thursday and lost about 2%, erasing the majority of its weekly gains in the process. In the European morning on Friday, Gold continues to edge lower but manages to hold above $4,000 for now.
USD/JPY rose nearly 0.5% on Thursday and reached a fresh four-decade high. The pair stays relatively calm in the early European session on Friday and trades near 163.80. Once again, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a verbal intervention earlier in the day, saying that authorities are prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange.
GBP/USD recovers modestly but remains below 1.3350 in the European morning on Friday following Thursday's sharp decline.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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