Euro rises as US Dollar weakens despite rising Middle East tensions
- EUR/USD may fall as escalating Middle East tensions drive up oil prices and fuel Fed rate hike expectations.
- President Trump threatens massive military strikes against Iran and plans new 10% to 12.5% global import tariffs.
- The ECB held key interest rates steady while warning that persistent energy shocks present ongoing inflation risks.
EUR/USD gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1380 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may regain strength, largely driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East that threaten to push crude oil prices higher. An oil-driven inflation spike has fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume raising interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran. Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Simultaneously, trade concerns are mounting after Bloomberg reported that the United States plans to impose new tariffs ranging between 10% and 12.5% on imports from major trading partners. This marks a major effort to rebuild the Trump administration's trade barrier following a recent Supreme Court ruling. Under this plan, imports from the European Union will face tariffs of at least 10%, structured to remain compliant with existing US-EU trade agreements.
Market participants process the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy decisions. While the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% medium-term target, it cautioned that high uncertainty persists and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike in June, the ECB opted to hold its key interest rates steady, keeping the deposit facility, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, respectively.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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