Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.6900 as US launches more strikes against Iran
- AUD/USD softens to near 0.6915 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- US begins new Iran strikes; Trump plans a 20% Hormuz charge.
- Westpac signaled an interest rate hike in the RBA’s August policy meeting.
The AUD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.6915 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). All eyes will be on the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday.
The US announced a new round of strikes on Iran on Monday, hours after US President Donald Trump said Washington is “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and will charge other ships for safe passage.
Early Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Defence said that two national tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, were targeted by two Iranian cruise missiles in the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz, in Omani territorial waters, per Reuters. Signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the Greenback, a safe-haven asset, and act as a headwind for the pair.
Westpac analysts said that further interest rate increases remain on the table, with the major bank forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to lift the cash rate again as early as August as inflation risks persist.
The Australian central bank has implemented three interest rate increases of 25 basis points (bps) so far this year, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. Current ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate Futures indicated a minor 16% market expectation of a rate hike to 4.60% at the upcoming August meeting.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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