When is the Australia monthly CPI and how it could affect AUD/USD?
The Australia monthly CPI overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish its data for March on Wednesday at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to see a rise of 4.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.7% in February.
The CPI measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards.
How could the Australia monthly CPI affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the Australia monthly CPI data. The pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If data comes in hotter than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the 0.7200 psychological level. The next resistance level emerges at the April 17 high of 0.7222, en route to the weekly high of May 30, 2022 at 0.7283.
To the downside, the April 27 low of 0.7131 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 0.7100, round figure. The next contention level is located at the March 13 low of 0.6980.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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