AUD/USD Price Forecast: Fresh rally expected above 0.7200
- Australian Dollar rises as market sentiment remains favorable for risk-sensitive assets.
- US President Trump said that Iran is willing to give up its enriched uranium.
- The RBA is expected to raise its OCR further by 55 bps this year.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades higher against its major currency peers, is up 0.1% around 0.7170 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Friday. The antipodean outperforms as the market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets amid firm hopes of a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.19% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.15% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.13% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.30% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.02% | 0.17% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.23% | -0.11% | -0.07% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
During the press time, S&P 500 futures hold onto Thursday’s gains around 7,040, reflecting a broader risk-on market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher around 98.20, but is on track to close negative for the second straight week.
US President Donald Trump said in a press briefing on Thursday that the two nations are close to reaching a deal. Trump added that Iran is now more willing to give up its nuclear ambitions and hand over the enriched uranium. Meanwhile, neither nation has announced any timeframe for another round of talks.
On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more interest rate hikes this year amid high inflation expectations. According to a Reuters report, the RBA is expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 55 basis points (bps) in the remaining year to 4.65%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7170 at the press time. The pair holds a constructive short-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7051, keeping the latest rebound from the mid-0.68 region technically supported.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 65 leans toward bullish momentum but stops short of overbought territory, suggesting upside pressure is present yet not overly stretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 0.7051, where a daily close below would signal fading bullish control and expose a deeper pullback toward recent lows. As long as buyers defend this moving average, the broader bias would likely remain tilted to the upside, with momentum studies hinting that dips toward support could still attract demand. The price will likely extend the rally towards 0.7300 if it manages to break decisively above the multi-year high of 0.7200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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