AUD/USD Price Forecast: Needs breakout above 0.7200 for a fresh rally
- AUD/USD refreshes multi-year high near 0.7200 as the Australian Dollar outperforms amid a risk-on mood.
- Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for talks later in the day.
- Australian Employment Change data misses estimates, Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%.
The AUD/USD pair posts a fresh multi-year high around 0.7200 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair demonstrates strength as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers amid a continuous risk-on market mood.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.24% | 0.05% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.21% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.12% | 0.15% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.09% | 0.14% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.06% | 0.20% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.16% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Consistent delivery of positive remarks from Washington regarding the permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has improved the demand for riskier assets. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the overnight session, trading 0.25% higher around 7,040. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers its early losses and flattens around 98.00. Earlier in the day, the USD Index posted a fresh over six-week low around 97.85.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday that Washington is very much engaged in negotiations with Iran and another round of talks is very likely to be scheduled in Pakistan, according to The Guardian.
Meanwhile, both the US and Iran have confirmed the meeting between Israel and Lebanon later in the day.
On the domestic front, Australian job data for March misses estimates. The labor market report showed that the economy created 17.9K new jobs, lower than estimates of 20K and the previous reading of 49.7K. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.3%, as expected.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7200 as of writing. The pair holds a clear bullish bias as price trades decisively above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7041, extending the recovery from the mid-0.68 area.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 67, flirting with overbought territory and hinting that upside momentum remains firm but could be vulnerable to bouts of consolidation after the recent advance.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.7041, which underpins the short-term uptrend and would need to give way to suggest a deeper correction toward previous lows around 0.7000. While the price could enter a fresh rally if it manages a decisive breakout above the multi-year high of 0.7200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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