Indian Rupee holds ground despite RBI ending FCNR forex swap window early
- Indian Rupee may face downward pressure following the RBI’s decision to end its FCNR deposit FX swap early.
- USD/INR is projected to trade between 95.00 and 95.50 this week amid expected pre-August 31 FCNR deposit demand.
- The US Dollar declines as weaker-than-expected US economic data faded Fed rate hike odds.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades stronger against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after two days of losses, with the USD/INR pair trading around 95.50 at the time of writing. However, the Indian Rupee (INR) may struggle in the coming period, potentially driving the pair higher, following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) announcement to shut its FX swap facility for FCNR deposits a month ahead of schedule. Data released alongside the decision highlighted that the central bank's policy measures, including the deposit swap window, successfully attracted nearly $57 billion.
Market traders expect the USD/INR pair to fluctuate between 95.00 and 95.50 this week. Some anticipate a short-term rush among overseas clients aiming to secure FX deposits before the facility officially closes on August 31, while foreign portfolio flows and routine hedging activity will further direct currency movement.
Investors will closely monitor the release of the minutes from the RBI's August policy meeting, during which interest rates were kept unchanged. Looking ahead, most analysts project that the RBI will either initiate a shallow rate-hiking cycle starting in December or maintain its pause across the remainder of 2026.
India inflation uptick supports RBI’s steady policy stance
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that India’s inflation backdrop remains broadly contained, noting that headline CPI “edged up modestly to 4.45% yoy in July from 4.38% in June,” a move they say “reinforc[es] the latest decision by the RBI to keep policy on hold.”
The USD/INR pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations. The US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June, coming in below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 5.0% in July compared to 6.8% in the previous month.
Traders have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following a slew of softer US data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Markets are now pricing in a 33.1% chance of a rate hike next month, down from 44% last week according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Fed seen keeping hawks in check as disinflation evidence builds
Strategists at Scotiabank argue that last week’s data have likely provided sufficient reassurance on the inflation front to justify a more patient stance from policymakers. They highlight that “there is likely to have been enough evidence of disinflation in last week’s data (along with signs of slowing in the labour market) to allow Fed Chairman Warsh to keep the inflation hawks at bay,” reinforcing expectations that the Fed can resist pressure for an early shift back toward a more aggressive tightening bias.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains above moving averages within ascending channel
USD/INR holds losses after two days of gains, trading around 95.50 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is remaining within the ascending channel, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias.
Additionally, the USD/INR pair holds a slight constructive bias as spot remains above both the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.4418 and the 50-period EMA at 95.3913, suggesting near-term dips are being cushioned by dynamic support.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark at 49.2, hinting at broadly balanced momentum after the recent pullback, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading around 134.6 adds a modestly supportive macro backdrop without yet translating into a clear directional breakout on the chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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