Musk Sees SpaceX Q4 Revenue Up 70% QoQ, Driving Stock Up Over 8% With SPCX Poised to Retest $172

TradingKey - As of the close on November 6 Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) snapped its consecutive pullbacks, rising 8.62% to close at $134.27, after touching an intraday low of $128.57, with trading volume of approximately 115 million shares. However, the stock had previously tumbled 9.05% on November 5 to close at $123.62. Despite Friday's notable rebound, SPCX was still down about 5% cumulatively over the past week, and its short-term trend has not yet fully escaped its corrective structure.

From a fundamental perspective, Elon Musk provided a more optimistic revenue forecast at the Baron Investment Conference on November 6. He expects SpaceX's fourth-quarter revenue to grow approximately 70% quarter-over-quarter, with potential for another roughly 70% growth in the first quarter of 2027, bringing quarterly revenue to around $42 billion, above analysts' previous expectations of approximately $33 billion. The company had previously officially issued first-quarter 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, making Musk's latest forecast noticeably more upbeat.

Looking ahead to 2027, Musk expects SpaceX's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) to potentially exceed $500 billion by December 2027, compared with a target of $100 billion by December 2026. If gradually realized, this forecast will further heighten market expectations for the growth potential of SpaceX's AI computing power, Starlink, and space businesses. Musk also emphasized that the $500 billion figure is a personal estimate, not an official corporate performance commitment.

In the short term, these remarks help improve market expectations for the company's future growth, and the stock's more than 8% gain on November 6 also indicates that bullish sentiment has been ignited. However, attention still needs to be paid going forward to the expansion of computing capacity, the fulfillment of customer contracts, and the impact of capital expenditures on cash flow.

SPCX daily price chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of SPCX, the stock tumbled 9% last Thursday, breaking below the key support at $130 and weakening its short-term structure. However, with an 8% surge on Friday nearly recouping all of Thursday's losses, the stock extended its gains in after-hours trading, at one point rising above $136, signaling that bullish sentiment has been restored and that the stock may continue to rise in the short term.

At present, the stock has reclaimed the $130 support level. On the upside, the primary resistance zone to watch is the $140–$143 range. If the stock can break out strongly and hold above $143, it is expected to continue upward to test the key resistance level at $172.

On the downside, the primary support level to watch is $130. If this level fails to hold, the stock will continue downward to test last Friday's low of $120.39. If it continues to fall, the stock could slide further toward around $105.