Indian Rupee hovers near multi-month highs as foreign inflows support Indian equities
- The Indian Rupee hovered near seven-month highs following over $4.1 billion in foreign stock purchases this November.
- October Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 165,000, significantly exceeding expectations and limiting the Greenback’s downside.
- CME FedWatch indicates over a 78% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase.
USD/INR continues its losing streak for the eighth successive day, trading around 93.80 during early European hours on Monday. The currency pair is hovering near seven-month lows as the Indian Rupee (INR) gains strong support from massive foreign capital inflows. Overseas investors have injected over $4.1 billion into Indian equities so far in November, marking their largest monthly net buying since September 2024.
Meanwhile, a broader retreat from global AI-linked technology stocks is encouraging market participants to rotate capital back into regional Asian assets. As investors re-evaluate overextended tech valuations, India has emerged as a key beneficiary, drawing interest for its relatively undervalued equity market.
Additionally, the USD/INR pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges as a decline in crude oil prices helps ease inflationary pressures. Energy markets pulled back after US President Donald Trump signaled that further military action against Iran is "highly unlikely," contingent on continued progress regarding Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remaining open. Trump also acknowledged that the unpopular conflict in the Middle East, which had previously driven energy costs higher, played a key role in the Republicans' recent midterm election losses.
However, the downside of the Greenback could be limited as the stronger US labor market data heightened expectations for monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has surged past 78%.
Fed-hawk-leaning sentiment is strongly underpinned by robust US employment metrics. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surged by 165,000, substantially outperforming the 65,000 consensus estimate and building on September's revised 60,000 figure, while the Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.1%, beating the 4.2% forecast.
Traders and market participants are now turning their focus to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) release for definitive cues on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy path.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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