Bitcoin has been taking off since mid-August, even though the Clarity Act hasn't passed.
Its lackluster performance this year could have made it an attractive buy when compared to equities.
Investors may see Bitcoin as a way to hedge against market risk, but it hasn't proven to be a safe-haven asset in the past.
Excitement around cryptocurrency has waned for much of the year, but lately, it's been picking up steam again. The leading digital currency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), has been soaring since around mid-August. Back then, it was around $65,000 and trading sideways in recent months. But last week, it was getting close to $90,000, as it hit levels it hadn't been at since early in the year.
Could the rally continue, and is it probable for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 before the end of 2026?
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What's surprising about Bitcoin's rally is that it has occurred even though the Clarity Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, has failed to advance or secure approval. It could have been a huge catalyst for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, yet Bitcoin has still rallied.
The digital currency may be rallying as investors look to assets other than stocks. The stock market has remained incredibly strong this year, but there's no doubt that valuations are high right now. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has struggled and even with its impressive gains over the past few weeks is still down around 26% over the past 12 months.
Investors may see this as an opportunity to load up on an underperforming asset at a time when equities may appear risky due to high prices. By comparison, Bitcoin may look attractive due to its reduced valuation. Even if it were to reach $100,000, it would still be down from its all-time high of more than $126,000 that it hit last year.
Bitcoin has been rising of late, but without a clear catalyst. That can be dangerous, because it can just as quickly give back its recent gains. And while Bitcoin may seem like a way to hedge against overall market risk, it has failed to be a safe-haven asset in the past. Back in 2022, when the S&P 500 fell by 19%, Bitcoin plummeted by a whopping 65%.
The digital currency is inevitably going to be tied to overall investor sentiment, and when there isn't much appetite for risk, it isn't likely to do well. Although it's been rallying of late, I don't believe it'll be able to get to $100,000 by the end of the year. And even if it does, it may not stay there, as broader market concerns may bring it back down.
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David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.