Prediction: This Space Stock Will Outperform SpaceX Over the Next 10 Years

Space is the final frontier, and investors are pricing in reaching that frontier sooner rather than later. The hottest stock of 2026 is Space Exploration Technologies, which leapfrogged almost every stock in the world to become the eighth most valuable business by market cap after its initial public offering (IPO).

Investors think the future lies with SpaceX and its endeavors in satellite internet and artificial intelligence (AI). But what if there was a cheaper way to invest in the space economy? Enter Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). The SpaceX competitor is growing rapidly and could be a much better long-term winner in the stock market.

Here's why I think Rocket Lab will outperform SpaceX stock over the next 10 years.

Betting on growth

Rocket Lab has been a niche player in the space economy in the last five years, but that has not meant it has experienced rapid revenue growth from a small starting place. It has steadily grown the launch cadence of its small Electron rocket, which works with satellite players and the United States government.

Alongside its launch business, Rocket Lab has been organically developing and acquiring capabilities in space systems manufacturing. This includes satellite development, communications, solar arrays, and many other capabilities it can build for third parties and itself. These dual growth engines, which work in tandem to win contracts, help explain why Rocket Lab's revenue has grown by roughly 870% since going public in 2021, and why its backlog is now $2.36 billion, or more than three times its trailing revenue of $769 million.

Long-term, this growth should continue when Rocket Lab debuts its Neutron rocket later this year or in early 2027. The Neutron will help Rocket Lab directly compete with SpaceX for payloads. Second, Rocket Lab will soon close its acquisition of Iridium Communications, which will springboard it into the satellite internet business, directly competing with SpaceX's Starlink. Given this trajectory, I think Rocket Lab could more than 10x its revenue over the next decade to $10 billion.

Image source: Getty Images.

Cheaper valuation

Another notch in Rocket Lab's belt over SpaceX is the starting valuation. Both businesses are growing quickly, but Rocket Lab actually gets a cheaper starting price-to-sales (P/S) ratio compared to SpaceX at a smaller market cap.

SpaceX has a trailing P/S ratio of 94, while Rocket Lab's is 56. This is likely due to Elon Musk's massive projections for future growth at SpaceX, but, as we all know with Musk, they can take longer to materialize than originally thought. Rocket Lab is no slouch when it comes to product development delays, but it has a smaller market cap at $44 billion vs. SpaceX's $2 trillion, and is also growing like a weed.

SPCX PS Ratio data by YCharts

Are any space stocks a buy today?

When you look at the growth potential and starting valuation, I think Rocket Lab will outperform SpaceX over the next decade. That does not mean the stock will deliver monster returns for shareholders.

Taking an objective look at valuation paints a darker picture. Rocket Lab currently has a market cap of $44 billion, one that is going to be diluted going forward through consistent share sales. If Rocket Lab's dilution leads to a $50 billion market cap 10 years from now at current prices, that is a 5x multiple compared to my rough $10 billion estimate for revenue.

While investors might think this is cheap, the space business does not come with high margins, and this would only mean the stock is valued at a reasonable multiple 10 years from now, compared to the current share price, or a flat share price. This should make Rocket Lab a stock to avoid right now.

Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.