Prediction: Here's What a $10,000 Investment in Dutch Bros (BROS) Stock Could Be Worth by 2029
Key Points
Dutch Bros’ management team believes it can have 2,029 stores open by 2029, up from 1,225 today.
Competition from massive industry peers, as well as smaller rivals, will make things difficult for the business.
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Unlike its caffeinated beverages, Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS) shares haven't energized investors' portfolios. They currently trade 55% off their peak (as of Sept. 24).
However, the business does have notable potential. This is precisely what the thesis rests on. For example, management believes it will have 2,029 stores open by 2029, up from 1,225 locations as of June 30.
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Here's what a $10,000 investment in this coffee stock could be worth by 2029 if it achieves this growth target.
Image source: Getty Images.
Shares currently trade at a price-to-sales ratio of 2.6. If we assume that after four years, this multiple stays constant, then it implies that the stock will rise 66% by 2029 (mimicking store expansion) should it reach its store-opening goal. A starting $10,000 would be worth $16,600.
This assumes that revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of 18% over this period of time. Compared to the 30% yearly clip posted in the prior three years, this would mark a natural slowdown.
Investors must accept the fact that Dutch Bros' long-term success is far from a guarantee, despite how exciting a growth story it has been. The main headwind is how intensely competitive the retail coffee market is. There are massive rivals like Starbucks, McDonald's, and Dunkin', as well as smaller industry peers like 7 Brew Coffee, The Human Bean, and Biggby Coffee.
People have lots of choices. This will make it difficult for Dutch Bros to keep up its expansion.
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Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Dutch Bros and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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