Anthropic’s $2 Trillion IPO Dream Meets a $1.5 Trillion Reality Check

Anthropic’s initial public offering (IPO) may carry a price tag about $500 billion lighter than investors once expected. 

Some current and prospective investors have reportedly discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for the November listing. 

Why Did a 45% Jump Leave Investors Wanting More?

The lower figure came from investors who attended Anthropic’s investor day in San Francisco on Wednesday, Reuters reported. There, the artificial intelligence (AI) firm said it was profitable on an adjusted basis during the quarter. 

It reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, a 45% rise. Still, some investors were disappointed by the slower pace. Revenue had more than doubled to $11.6 billion in the second quarter.

Part of that slowdown was visible before the investor day. Large clients Meta and Microsoft now lean more on AI models they build themselves. Anthropic also cut back on distillation. That paid usage had brought in 5% to 7% of revenue.

Prices are falling as well. Anthropic priced Claude Haiku 5.5 about 75% below its predecessor this month as low-cost Chinese labs add pressure.

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Why Anthropic’s Price Tag Reaches Far Beyond Anthropic

Critics had doubted the $2 trillion price well before Wednesday’s numbers. Earlier this month, New Constructs valued Anthropic at $150 billion. The research firm flagged WeWork in 2019.

“We don’t think Anthropic has a viable business.”

Even at $1.5 trillion, Anthropic would sit below the $1.77 trillion valuation SpaceX reached at its June listing. 

How Anthropic prices also matters beyond its own shareholders, because Big Tech’s AI sales lean heavily on Anthropic and OpenAI.

In August, Steve Eisman put the pair at roughly 70% of AI-related revenue at Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle. He called that reliance the Achilles’ heel of the AI boom.

Other investors have since sounded louder bubble warnings. Michael Burry recently said an AI bubble may burst sooner than the 2028 timeline he once expected.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also expects the AI data center boom to end in a crash and a multi-trillion-dollar bailout.

Meanwhile, the development arrives during a bruising week for AI stocks. The 20 most valuable AI and chip names have shed over $1 trillion, according to CNBC.

Dell sank 6.8% on Thursday, after an 11% drop the day before. CoreWeave plunged about 15% on Wednesday.

For now, Anthropic remains first in line, with OpenAI expected to list by early 2027. Analysts expect whichever lab goes first to set the industry’s pricing benchmark.

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