Bernstein raises prediction market outlook tenfold to $10T

Bernstein predicts that prediction markets can see $10 trillion in trading per year by 2035, rising from the expected $410 billion per year now. The prediction comes at a time when prediction market platforms are striving for dominance in the space; these include Kalshi and Polymarket.

This prediction is important for these firms as they depend on the assumption that financial contracts will become the main factor in the industry, surpassing sports.

Financial assets set to unseat sports

Bernstein reportedly expects volume to grow at about 70% per annum from 2025 through 2035. The more ambitious prediction concerns the mix. Volume linked with contracts for crypto, equities, and commodities constituted approximately 12% of the total volume in 2025. For 2035, Bernstein expects this share to increase to 49%. It could be sufficient to make it larger than the share attributable to sports, which remains the most important category.

Sports, on the other hand, moves the other way. It can decline from 61% in 2025 to 38% in 2035. Some of the growth comes from the development of the financial product. As noted by Bernstein, “KPI markets, where users can trade single metrics for a company, such as production, deliveries or subscriptions, rather than its share price,” and perpetual futures are developing from the crypto segment to the commodity and individual stocks segments.

Kalshi pulls ahead as crypto contracts spread

The industry volume has risen from around $50 billion in 2025 to approximately $300 billion in 2026 through August. It was fueled by short-term crypto and commodities contracts, including 15-minute Bitcoin contracts. Sports volume saw an increase during FIFA World Cup time and maintained record highs when the competition ended.

Kalshi appears to be the clear victor so far. It has dominated the market by accounting for nearly 60% of the industry volume by August. It is much higher compared to its 35% share in 2025.

Crypto’s contribution to the trading activities on Kalshi has surged from less than 5% in January to nearly 20% by August. Trading in commodities has seen growth, from below $2 million in 2025 to around $590 million YTD, of which $410 million was done in August.

In Polymarket, sports contracts account for around 52% of total volume this year, higher than 39% last year, while political markets fall to 22% from 32%.

Bernstein’s $10T prediction hinges on a $900T financial market

The core number from Bernstein comes with a massive addressable market. The company sees the market for financial asset contracts at about $700 trillion in 2025 and $900 trillion by 2035. Assume that prediction markets get just 0.5% by 2035, and the numbers will yield about $4.7 trillion annually in terms of volumes generated from financial contracts alone.

However, there is one caveat in terms of the regulatory aspect. As stated by Bernstein, the company expects regulation of prediction markets for U.S. sports to be approved no earlier than 2027-2028 due to conflicting decisions in courts regarding whether the contracts are considered derivatives under federal regulations or gaming under state law.

The $10 trillion prediction by the company is a very sharp increase from where Bernstein was five months ago. The firm predicted volumes reaching $1 trillion by 2030 from $51 billion in 2025 back in April.

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