Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - November 4, 2026

Gold price chart for today

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Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $3,923.91 this morning (November 4, 2026), pressured after U.S. JOLTS job openings surged to 7.52 million and factory orders expanded strongly, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.95% and reinforcing the prospect of further Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, historical data show gold gained an average 14% after midterm elections. Today, watch whether support at $3,885-$3,904 holds.

JOLTS Job Openings Surge to 7.52 Million as Strong Factory Orders Lift the 10-Year Yield to 4.95%, Pressuring Gold

The U.S. Labor Department reported that September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) vacancies rose to 7.523 million, above forecasts of 7.15 million and the highest since May. Factory orders rose 1.8%, also exceeding expectations of 1.2%, indicating that the labor market and manufacturing remain resilient despite high interest rates.

The hot economic data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.951% and strengthened the dollar, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates again in December after two officials voted for a rate hike at the latest meeting. The resulting increase in opportunity costs pressured spot gold down to $3,924.10.

Data Show Gold Rallied an Average 14% After U.S. Midterm Elections in 8 of 13 Cases, as Markets Watch the Congressional Battle

Kitco Research reviewed 13 election cycles since 1974 and found that gold rose in the 12 months after U.S. midterm elections in eight instances, generating an average return of +14% (median +15%). Notably, gold gained 20% and 15% after uncertainty eased following the 2018 and 2022 cycles, respectively.

Meanwhile, markets are watching vote counting. A divided Congress could limit new spending measures and borrowing, slowing Treasury issuance and supporting gold. But if Republicans gain unified control, an expansion of the debt ceiling could continue to pressure yields.

Crude Oil Pulls Back as Qatar Mediates Iran Talks, Reducing the Risk Premium; Markets Turn to ADP and NFP

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eased temporarily after the United States attacked Iran's Qeshm Island, while Qatar proceeded with mediation efforts. Brent crude fell 1.1% to $103.60 and WTI closed at $96.09, reducing the war-risk premium and easing inflation pressure.

Elsewhere, markets remain cautious on gold holdings. Investors await tonight's ADP private employment report, international trade balance and ISM services index, as well as Friday's nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, to assess interest-rate signals before making their next portfolio adjustments.

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On the 1-hour chart, gold recovered from a base at $3,870 to test resistance at $3,971-$3,982 before profit-taking pushed it back toward $3,923.91. The short-term structure remains range-bound, with liquidity absorption buying continuing to provide support.

The RSI momentum indicator has recovered from oversold territory and is holding around 48-52, signaling that selling pressure has slowed and momentum is returning to balance. However, failure to clear 60 indicates that buying still lacks the force to drive an immediate trend reversal.

Today's key decision point is a reclaim and close above resistance at $3,971-$3,982. Until then, beware of a bull trap that could allow selling pressure to push price back down to retest the key support base at $3,885-$3,904.

If price holds above $3,885-$3,904 and clears $3,971-$3,982, it could recover toward $4,074-$4,083 and $4,104-$4,115. However, a break below $3,885 would confirm continued selling pressure, with the next supports at $3,829-$3,849 and $3,780-$3,800, respectively.

Today's Gold Price Outlook

Today's Trading Strategy

Short-term traders should trade the range cautiously, waiting to see absorption of selling around support at $3,885-$3,904 before opening positions. Avoid chasing purchases before the first resistance is cleared, and always use a stop loss.

• Buy setup: Wait for a pullback to test support at $3,885-$3,904 with clear buying support and a stable RSI, or follow a break above $3,982. Target $4,074-$4,083, with a stop loss below $3,875.

• Sell setup: Consider opening a short position when price rebounds to test resistance at $3,971-$3,982 or $4,074-$4,083 and is rejected, or follow a break below $3,885. Target $3,829-$3,849, with a stop loss above resistance.

For long-term investors, structural support from post-midterm historical data remains favorable. Consider accumulating if price tests support bases at $3,829-$3,849 or $3,780-$3,800.

Daily Support and Resistance Levels

Today's Questions (FAQ)

Why did JOLTS job openings surging to 7.52 million pressure gold prices?

JOLTS job openings rising to 7.52 million indicate that the labor market remains strong, supporting expectations that the Fed could raise rates again in December. This lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.95% and strengthened the dollar, increasing opportunity costs and pressuring spot gold down to $3,924.

What factors explain gold's average 14% gain after U.S. midterm elections?

Fifty-year historical data show that uncertainty tends to ease after midterm elections. If a divided Congress emerges, it can limit borrowing and slow new Treasury issuance, reducing pressure on yields and helping gold rise an average 14% over the following 12 months.