Could Anthropic's IPO Be Bigger Than SpaceX's?

Could an Anthropic IPO top that of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX)? Three months after SpaceX listed, that is the question all over Wall Street. While SpaceX reset the IPO scoreboard, Anthropic has to decide whether it wants to beat Elon Musk's record on cash raised, valuation, or just on the story. These are three very different fights.

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How SpaceX reset the IPO narrative

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12. Shares opened around $150, and the company raised a total of $86.2 billion after an overallotment was exercised. That crushed Saudi Aramco's old record of roughly $26 billion raised in 2019. By the end of its first day of trading, SpaceX boasted a market cap around $2.1 trillion -- implying a 112 times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio based on 2025 revenue.

SpaceX only sold about 4% of the company in the IPO. This means investors paid a moonshot premium for a lumpy rocket business attached to a small broadband connectivity operation and an unproven artificial intelligence (AI) story that is bleeding cash.

Detailing Anthropic's valuation history

Anthropic was valued at $61.5 billion in early 2025 and jumped to $183 billion by September of that year. By February, Anthropic's value had risen to $380 billion after raising $30 billion in a Series G financing round. Most recently, Anthropic was valued at $965 billion after raising another $65 billion in May.

That Series H round was led by a consortium of private equity, venture capital, and strategic corporations. Some of the more interesting names to participate in the round include Amazon and chip suppliers such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix.

The number that matters most for Anthropic's IPO is its annualized run rate (AAR). At the end of last year, Anthropic's ARR run rate hovered around $9 billion. During its raise in May, the company confirmed it had reached a run rate of $47 billion, and it later told investors that the pace hit $65 billion by July.

This level of growth confirms that enterprises are not buying a simple chatbot. Customers are paying for the Claude API inside production apps: Claude Code writing software, Claude Cowork handling administrative work around operations and legal, and Claude for Financial Advisors to help wealth managers review portfolios.

Bigger is a slippery word

Anthropic has filed a confidential S-1 and is reportedly considering a public listing this fall. Some rumors are circulating that the IPO could be valued around $2 trillion. In this sense, Anthropic could be a larger debut than SpaceX.

However, if "larger" means cash raised, the company has a high bar to clear that might require a bigger float compared to SpaceX. I question whether founders and existing investors would accept the level of dilution required to get there.

Do not buy Anthropic's IPO the same way people poured into SpaceX in the opening scene. The prudent strategy is to wait for the S-1 to become publicly available, confirm how much of the company's revenue is recurring Claude subscriptions versus one-off usage, and treat the debut print as a spectacle.

Chasing a $2 trillion open is how you become exit liquidity. Patience and discipline will allow you to buy Anthropic stock at a more reasonable price once the post-IPO hype shakes out.

Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.