TMC Stock Is Up With Retail Investors as the U.S. and Japan Team Up to Challenge China's Grip on Critical Minerals

TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) has seen volatile trading in 2026, but a recent report suggests that the stock is gaining favor with retail investors. Data tracking on the StockTwits platform shows that sentiment among traders on the platform has moved from bearish to bullish recently.

In particular, retail investors appear to have become increasingly bullish on the stock on March 30 following comments from the mining specialist's CEO discussing a partnership between his company and Japan to accelerate deep-sea mining capabilities. While the company's stock is down roughly 25% year to date, its share price is up roughly 178% over the last year.

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Is TMC poised to become a deep-sea mining powerhouse?

Despite some recent valuation pullbacks, TMC stock has seen big gains over the last year connected to the possibility that the company could emerge as a disruptive new player in the critical minerals market. While the company's share price has seen huge gains over the last 12 months, TMC has yet to record any revenue -- and its stock remains a highly speculative bet. The upside is that the mining specialist could be positioned to capitalize on big shifts in its industry backdrop.

China dominates the markets for critical mineral extraction and refining, but the country's relationships with the U.S. and Japan have been becoming increasingly adversarial in recent years. As a result, the U.S, Japan, and other American allies have been exploring opportunities to diversify their mineral sourcing operations away from Chinese sources.

TMC's business model revolves around the extraction of polymetallic nodules from the seabed floor. These nodules contain metals including cobalt, nickel, copper, and magnesium. In addition to extracting nodules containing these metals, some investors are betting that TMC could make moves to expand into the rare-earth minerals space -- a mining industry segment in which China is even more dominant.

With the U.S. and Japan now teaming up to accelerate deep-sea mining operations, TMC's commercial deployment and expansion opportunities over the next several years may have gotten another meaningful boost. The two countries are teaming up to source critical minerals and have already announced an initiative to extract rare-earth minerals from areas surrounding Japan's Minamitorishima Island. While it remains to be seen if TMC will be a direct beneficiary of the expanding partnership between the U.S. and Japan on mineral sourcing, geopolitical and macroeconomic trends generally seem to support an accelerated commercialization timeline for TMC.

Despite what looks to be an increasingly favorable operating backdrop, investors should keep in mind that TMC is still a highly speculative stock. The company sports a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 billion despite having yet to record any sales from its core operations. The stock could see explosive gains if TMC evolves into a real player in the critical minerals market, but there's still a lot of uncertainty on that front.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.